The latest figures released by HESA (the Higher Education Statistics Agency) on 20 March 2025 paint a sobering picture for universities. For the first time since 2014, total higher education student numbers in the UK have declined, with a 1% drop in undergraduate enrolments and a more concerning 8% fall in taught master’s degrees numbers. For institutions that have long relied on international enrolments to drive growth, particularly at the postgraduate level, these figures are a wake-up call.
A 7% drop in international student entrants, with especially steep declines from key markets such as Nigeria (-36%), India (-15%), and China (-4%), underscores the need for a strategic rethink. These three countries traditionally account for the highest proportion of international students in the UK, and they’ve played a pivotal role in the financial sustainability of postgraduate education, where international students make up 51% of total enrolments.
In addition to this, the Home Office has reported a 14% decline in the number of sponsored study visas granted in 2024 compared to the previous year. This decline aligns with tighter immigration policies that are making it harder for international students to relocate to the UK for in-person study. The outcome is clear – fewer students are coming to UK campuses, and the traditional model of international student recruitment is under strain.
New immigration measures add more pressure
Compounding international student enrolment challenges is a policy shift unveiled in the UK government’s new whitepaper ‘Restoring control over the immigration system’ published on 12 May 2025. The paper outlines several proposed and imminent changes with direct implications for international student recruitment.
One of the headline proposals is the potential introduction of a levy on higher education provider income from international students, with further details to be revealed in the Autumn Budget. This move, while positioned as being something which serves the public interest, raises concerns about the financial strain it could place on institutions already grappling with declining numbers.
The Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) framework which determines an institution’s ability to sponsor international students will also undergo significant tightening. The government has labelled current thresholds ‘too lenient’ and will implement a Red-Amber-Green performance rating. This tiered system will determine institutional standing, with underperforming providers facing interventions such as tailored action plans and caps on international student recruitment. These changes signal increased scrutiny and risk for universities relying heavily on international intakes.
The Graduate route visa, which enables international students to stay in the UK after completing their studies, will be reduced from two years to 18 months. This change has the potential to make the UK a less attractive study destination in an increasingly competitive global market.
Together, these policy changes add urgency for universities to diversify how and where they deliver their degrees to international audiences.
A new opportunity for a shifting higher education landscape
While onshore enrolments have dropped, transnational education (TNE) is on the rise. HESA data also shows an 8% increase in TNE students – those studying UK degrees while located outside of the UK. This reflects a growing global demand for high-quality UK higher education but from a market segment that does not want to travel to the UK, marking a fundamental shift in international education which universities must be ready to face.
The rise of online learning is more than a trend
For many international learners, online study offers a compelling value proposition. It allows students to gain a globally-respected UK degree, delivered with the flexibility to learn from anywhere, and often at a significantly lower cost than studying on campus. It also removes growing barriers such as visa restriction and accommodation costs, making it an attractive option in today’s climate.
This shift is already playing out in the data. In 2022/23, 34% of TNE students were studying at postgraduate level – evidence that online postgraduate programmes are gaining real traction globally. Looking at online / distance provision specifically Asia is the biggest market region (now accounting for 36% of international online distance students), followed by the EU (with 18%), and Africa and North America (with around 14% each). Notable growth was observed in numbers of online PGT students in Asia, Middle East and North America, which demonstrates the potential to create sustainable growth in existing and new international markets.
Time for universities to evolve their international strategies
For universities, this moment calls for a pivot from a campus-first to a learner-first mindset. This means moving beyond traditional recruitment pipelines and reimagining how UK degrees are delivered to global learners. Branch campuses and other in-country TNE delivery modes are one option but are self-limiting in terms of geography and inflexibility of delivery mode, excluding potential students who work, have families or other commitments which make relocation and traditional classroom learning impossible.
By offering fully online programmes tailored to the needs and expectations of international students, universities can tap into new markets, diversify their revenue streams, and build more resilient enrolment strategies.
Adding online programmes to your existing offering is easier than you might think. At Higher Ed Partners, we work with universities to seamlessly integrate distance learning degrees and manage the marketing, enrolment, and retention for you. When compared to other TNE options, the Higher Ed Partners proposition offers much faster time to market, with lower risk and no capital investment.
The road ahead
The decline in international student numbers on UK campuses is part of a broader transformation in global education, but within this shift lies significant opportunity. With demand for UK education still strong globally, and with TNE on the rise, universities that invest now in flexible online models will be well-positioned for sustainable growth.
We’re committed to helping universities reimagine what’s possible. We turn your challenges into innovation and long-term opportunities. Within our existing partnerships with UK universities, we see first-hand that the demand for UK-based degrees from international students is strong. 1 in 3 online enrolments comes from overseas, and we are currently serving students from over 150 countries.
There is huge potential for global growth within UK universities, and scalable online degrees give providers the capabilities to tap into the thriving market of international demand. We have a proven model that promotes sustainable growth and drives the recruitment and retention of students from across the world.
Get in touch to see how we help you to establish, operate, and grow your digital campus.